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Real yields rising, low coupon MBS widening, credit getting hit, commercial lending firming.... Hmmm@deadlyfrom80yds is it on BBG?@deadlyfrom80yds CYC?“@Monroewilson: @DavidSchawel were you reading this while not wanting to take my call??” // <----bothersome bond broker“@BondBuyergirl: Former Goldman banker Neil Morrison fined $100k Barred From Industry For 5yrs For Pay-To-Play http://t.co/TrTqzF0aJC”Is this not a real rate bottoming? http://t.co/aOLXAkFF1i@talktoskirt @RussianBear totally agree@Dutch_Book @Fullcarry @Hooper_Quant I already marked you down - you've been all over itAltegris is launching a fund in conjunction with Kyle Bass. John Mauldin's firm gets referral kickbacks AND commodity brokerage commissions.
Retweeted by David Schawel"Battle-scarred Goldman CEO unveils safeguards to avoid mistakes" http://t.co/DgRyiyIUYN $GS@_CarlosBabiano_ @Fullcarry @Hooper_Quant I'll order a fourth hat*BN: "Ben Bernanke Is No Alan Greenspan. Or Is He?"Ordering "zero real" hats for @Fullcarry and @Hooper_Quant@Fullcarry @Hooper_Quant read my mind10yr Nominals (2.04) and Break-Evens (2.23) are converging - are positive real yields in the near future? In 68bps since DecemberLacy Hunt out with a pretty defensive email about rates rising & why the economy is weaker than people realize

@Jesse_Livermore @conorsen that's exactly what I told conor tonight!@Jesse_Livermore 1. Don't feel bad, even after all of this he still has $3b AUM 2. He chooses to write those letters & keep these positions@Jesse_Livermore it's a rare talentwhere are all the intellectual journalists who can tell us we are idiots and don't understand monetary policy?
Retweeted by David Schawel@conorsen @DavidSchawel that trade way over its skis right now IMHO.
Retweeted by David Schawel@Nemo_incognito @conorsen how many people short the yen you think realize that differential?By the end of 2013, @GoldmanSachs will have more employees in Salt Lake City than in Hong Kong http://t.co/ynKuY90lc1, via @ErikSchatzker
Retweeted by David SchawelSo Japanese CPI is running -1% YoY and the 5y BE is ~1.9%... That's a huge jump that's being built in that may/may not happen at all@robertsinn mkts pricing in a huge increase in yet to be realized inflation ?5y Japanese break-evens http://t.co/48qpUfXkLv@ElliotTurn haha!Asian debt: Beware of bubbles: http://t.co/TIRpabGsAy //Told ya, bubble in "bubble headlines"Lenders to CLOs told to take lower rates: http://t.co/BdH4s1mLQt #FTGE eyes consumer finance unit IPO http://t.co/ijGHfXfcw9 Sign of the times focusing on buybacks@thetailchaser @Cneves3 I don't follow that swaptions market or have any idea what the skew looks like it you go OTM etc@Dutch_Book @StockJockey he's got the asymmetric return profile going - no matter what the market does his fund goes down@JohnKicklighter usually get them from BAML & JPM's weekly fixed income report@JohnKicklighter that's funny I just was looming at that chart 30secs ago@IvanTheK @michaelsantoli for instance commercial banks who hold significantly more munis versus agy MBS@IvanTheK @michaelsantoli easiest way to tell is to start with the investors who have been displaced by the Fed's purchases of MBS & USTsIt's been a rough month to be in a TIPS fundCash muni market much weaker than pricing service evals, expect some downward hits to NAV the next few days for muni CEFs, MF's etc@IvanTheK I'm filtering "just like I said on""MBS has seemingly no floor at this point. Fannie 3s are 13.5 wider vs USTs & 11 wider versus swaps. 30yr 3's r abandoned in absence of QE3"@IvanTheK oh crap, what do I do now?@talktoskirt me too, born and raised there! I'm a diehard@talktoskirt you're a Bears fan too?!?!?@exantefactor heck yeah10y real yields 13bps higher today@Fullcarry I love it@greg_ip Agree & this '09 Fed paper clearly explained it: http://t.co/mpO0IzkCMg Reserves are everything to do with size of balance sheet$GS & $MS continue ripping@mark_dow LOLWarning: Not a parody account RT @KeithMcCullough: I love it when people who have never trade macro do macro
Retweeted by David Schawel@themoneygame @bySamRo many HF's aren't designed to capture huge market rallies- this isn't surprising at all

@TapeFighter you're too kind - thank you!Move into ‘junk’ stocks powers bull run: http://t.co/L2RGHO19gd #FTSAP seeks programmers with autism: http://t.co/oC7YX5JA9C #FTDramatic day of things being outlawed: Airbnb in NYC, anchored putting in golf, and pronouncing "GIF" with a G@zzbar what? Nobody told me that :)Nikkei shooting to hit up 50% YTD during today's session“@Earth_Pics: Autumn Storm, Baden-Wurttenburg, Germany. http://t.co/sbwZp5kyRC”@DavidSchawel I can confirm this is true for at least one of your followers
Retweeted by David Schawel@fed_speak are you wanting us to say, "c'mon, please" ?@jennablan well it's not scrambling to buy a pvt placement preferred of a community bank@conorsen how does that chart jive with the falling participation rate? Thought that was due to retiring boomers?"Cumulative workers added by age group since financial crisis" http://t.co/2Dlzw2qqFHUS farmland faces asset bubble test: http://t.co/Nq7YQHL6l2 #FT //Bubble in bubble headlinesSilicon Valley set for immigration win: http://t.co/w2lFjC74My // I agree w/ this #FT@NYCBIZ @_the_goose @jake_f @BirchCreekCap Enough demand for the mkt to absorb the non-agy supply next week w/ out a big shock?BN: 34% of those who earn a bachelor’s degree need a fifth or sixth year to do it. Ivy League schools? 87% graduate in 4yrs@izakaminska I know a lot of big IB's were paying up for 0% RWA's such as USTs through collateral exchanges - wonder if that's fadedThis too shall pass, it's not different this timeThese are the types of BBG messages you get when there's an unhealthy chase for yield http://t.co/OX1xD0GJNNBig banks have been issuing a ton of perpetual pfd's$BAC out with a $1bil perp pfd, 5.20% fixed for 10yrs, then floating at L+313"Tornado survivor finds dog during interview" http://t.co/iwbHtzEw1X // heartwarming story@cullenroche people don't want to be left behind - so trueCorporate governance & tech acquisitions #topicsmyfollowersareapparentlyexpertsin@Matthew_C_Klein creates a game of musical chairs where institutions are forced out and must fight for remaining chairs in credit, etcDudley: QE works "primarily through the asset side of the balance sheet by transferring duration risk from the private sector to the" CB
Retweeted by David SchawelUndoing the twist would keep pressure on short rates while allowing the longer end to sell off-steeper curve would relieve pressure on banksHave thought recently about whether the Fed could do a "reverse twist" with USTs to begin.Take out duration but leave b/s size the sameI don't get why we tax corporations at all. Seems simpler and fairer to just tax people. Is this wrong?
Retweeted by David Schawel@diana_olick wonder how many of those were in private-label MBS bonds, thus putting the cost on bond holders"MetLife Says Low Rates Could Cost Annuity Unit $2.5 Billion" http://t.co/MOWEAwEjI1@Longmankind not sure if they can like US banks@DividendMaster banks have loans and stable funding though - also all their assets aren't 30yr fixed rate bonds... Not apples to apples@aarontask interesting thanks!@Hooper_Quant believe its a parallel shock. No real conviction, just surprised at the exposure they have for such a modest rate move@Nemo_incognito I have no position, but was surprised at the duration exposure the big banks have thereTo repeat, 100bp move up in JGB's creates a MTM loss of 20% of capital for large Japanese banks per new IMF studySeems there's been little discussion that $WFC also combines the CEO & Chairman roles30y 3s have widened approximately 1pt vs 7yr USTs since May and have now fully reversed their tightening since QE3 was announced #tapering?

Citing John D. Rockefeller, Lim says "more money lost chasing yield than at gunpoint." #CFA13
Retweeted by David SchawelPutting on my macro tourist hat, I'd think long USTs, short Bunds would be a decent risk reward trade going forward@mbusigin that looks like one of those, "what object do you see" tests@kyles09 yup which is why a bear flattener would be so brutal@kyles09 good point - but even a temporary rise could lead to a chain reaction. 100bps ain't much@kyles09 I don't necessarily see how the high risk impact of this would make it unlikely... See S&L crisis as example.. What am I missing?$AUDUSD with a $0.97 handle now - was early April it was almost $1.06For a 100bp shock to knock off 20% of capital for major JPY banks, that's some substantial exposure to ratesI'm pretty shocked at the level of Int Rate Risk that JPY institution's have-US banks don't appear 2 have anywhere near the same AL position@GeorgeManiereg not adding but still a holding of mine - I thinks it's cheap still